(Tariff) Rollercoaster of a month

What happened this last month?

We have went from record months to below our goal number this month. It’s not a huge setback considering that we’re still savings and all saving that we’re doing will hopefully one day be worth more than it is today. The stock market has been a rollercoaster since the tariffs have been announced, rolled back, adjusted, postponed, and more.

I’m all for good paying jobs to be in the US, but I’m afraid many of these tariffs will have the opposite effect. Let me explain. I work in the tech industry, and many in the tech industry have good paying jobs. Good paying jobs means taxes being paid. From my understanding, tariffs apply to physical goods coming into the country and don’t apply to things like consulting services. If you own or operate a business that manufactures items that relies on materials coming in from another country, you may find that in order to continue to operate, you have a few choices. You can raise your prices to keep purchasing materials, you can cut expenses, or a combination of the two. That may mean outsourcing tech work that you were hiring stateside with tech workers from out of the country to reduce your costs.

Money flowing to other countries for tech work wouldn’t be tariffed, and you’ve potentially put a US taxpayer out of work. It could also mean cutting development projects that you were investing in to make your business more competitive so you can keep purchasing materials to keep the business operating.

All that to say, while tariffs may benefit some, it will likely have the opposite effect for others. It doesn’t seem likely, in my opinion, that it will be a net positive if they’re kept around long enough that businesses have to start picking between the options above. I’m using tech workers as an example, but this applies to many other jobs that can be offshored to other countries.

As for our expenses this month, we purchases airline tickets and renewed a passport for our planned summer vacation. That alone drove our expenses up over last month and even last year. This month included a vet examination along with some other expenses related to the horse. Buying a horse is by far the least expensive part of owning a horse long term. Finally, a Rascal Flatts concert was nearby and we bought tickets last minute to see it. It was worth the expense.

Where did we spend the most?

Our monthly expenses were up compared to last month. Annually, they’re also up quite a bit from last February, but working their way down annually.

• $3722 Summer vacation expenses
• $717 Horse expenses
• $664 Phone
• $469 Oil change/window seals
• $415 Horse clinic
• $334 Concert

The Money Related Numbers

99.23% to target number (previously 104.86%)

This is our invested assets (401k, HSA, IRA, brokerage, etc.) divided by our target goal number.

40 months until original FI date (previously 41)

The number of months until my 45th birthday and our Financial Independence date.

0.51 months until calculated FI date (previously 0)

The number of expected months until we reach our target number. This is based on our current expected monthly contributions, assuming a 10% annual return.

The Expense Related Numbers

11.19 times annual spending (previously 12.05)

This is how many multiples of our annual spending we have saved up towards our goal. For example, if this value was 9.1 and we spent $10,000 annually, we would have $91,000 saved up.

44.76% to minimum FIRE (previously 48.21%)

The minimum number to achieve FIRE is 25 times our annual spending. This number shows how close we are to the absolute minimum.

11.28 times annual spending at goal number (previously 11.50)

We’d like to save 25 times our annual spending. This is how many times our annual spending we’ll have saved when we reach our goal number. If it’s 25 or greater, than our goal number will be enough to cover our expenses. If it’s lower than 25, we’ll need to either cut our expenses or increase our goal number.

How Much We Invested

-57.31% Month to Month Change In How Much Saved (previously 203.59%)

This number shows the change in what we saved in our investment accounts this month compared to the prior month.

-53.58% Month to Month Change in How Much Saved With Employer Contributions (previously 186.12%)

Same as the prior number, but with employer contributions counted.

-0.88% Month to Month Change in 12 Month Savings Average (previously -5.37%)

This number shows the change in our 12 month rolling average. This helps to smooth out months over time.

-1.22% of 12 Month Average Net Income Invested With Employer Contributions (previously -4.99%)

Same as the prior number, but with employer contributions counted.

How we track the numbers

I’ve been using Empower (referral link) to track our numbers. I put them into a spreadsheet that calculates the numbers you see above.